Statistical Indicators

NAR Stats

Posted on Thursday, April 23, 2009

NAR released their latest states this AM. First time buyers are about 53% of all sales now.

Most agree sales will begin to strengthen but prices continue to drop.

About 40% of sales now are foreclosures or distressed which typically sell form about 20% less.

It typically takes 1 to 3 months for a plans effect to show up so we're still waiitng to see the impact of the $8k first time buy credit. My personal feeling is enouraging first time buyers into the market - in comparison to our other issues - is a no brainer. (1) as long as you're buying at the right price is ALWAYS makes more sense to own than to rent (2) unlike recovering from a dot com crash when no one HAD to buy dot come stock, everyone NEEDS a place to live and (3) the valuation methods we have always used to figure out how much real estate is worth (with the exception of comparative sales for the time being unless you can parcel out the extreme highs and lows caused by extranious factors) STILL work - they've always worked, we just werent using them during the bubble. But replacement cost and income potential still makes sense in valuing a property.

Briefly:

EXISTING HOME SALES NATIONALLY
Fell 7.1% from this time last year.

EXISTING HOME PRICE NATIONALLY
fell 12.4% from this time last year to $175,200.

HOUSING INVENTORY NATIONALLY
Fell 1.6% to 3.74 million, a 9.8 month of supply figure.

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES fell 5.7% below numbers this time last year. The median price is $174,900, 11.5% less than last year.

CONDO SALES are down 17.8% from last year and the median price is down to $177,600, or 18.7% from last year.

In the South in particular, EXISTING SALES are 10.9% lower than this time last year and the median price is down to $146,900, 12.2% less. The worst news for the south - Miami in particular - is the 13,000 condo units built and closed since 2003 - over 60% are investor owned or second homes and more likely to be foreclosed if things get tougher. On top of that is another 10,000 units built since 2003 that can't even be sold.

Sales and prices are down in the Northeast 22.5% and 18.4% respecticely. And in the Midwest 11.1% and 6.1%.

Most agree we seem to be on the road to stabalization with first time bueyrs driving the market since the share of lowered priced homes is trending upwards but sales in the higher price ranages remain stalled. Housing typically recovers from the bottom up as first time bueyrs enable existing home owners to sell and then move up into larger more expensive properties.




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